These 6 favorites are seen as winners, but Eurovision loves surprises – who will break the odds tonight?

Eurovision 2025 is knocking at the door, and fans across Europe have already taken their positions — some with popcorn, some with spreadsheets, and others with fingers ready for tweeting. Among dozens of contestants, six countries stand out as serious favorites to claim the prestigious trophy. Sweden, Austria, France, Estonia, Finland, and Greece — veteran champions, dark horses, and TikTok darlings, all in the same race for the audience’s and jury’s votes.

Some have already „won“ in the eyes of social media fans, others are persistently pushed to the top because „it’s expected of them,“ and a few are quietly lurking in the background, ready to steal the spotlight and become the surprise of the night.

But Eurovision loves to surprise. No matter how clear the betting odds are, and no matter how loud the fans get, many “certain” winners have failed to take the crown — precisely when everyone thought the deal was sealed.

In this article, we’ll break down the chances of these six countries: who’s bringing the fire, who’s playing it safe, and who’s betting on the surprise factor. And along the way, we might “poke” a few fanatics already preparing their acceptance speeches.

One thing’s for sure — this is Eurovision. And here, the winner is never a matter of agreement. It’s a matter of the moment.

 Sweden – KAJ, “Bara Bada Bastu”

Sweden and Eurovision — it’s an ongoing soap opera. With seven victories under their belt, the Scandinavians have built a reputation as the “shift manager” of Eurovision. Whether it was ABBA in 1974, Charlotte Perrelli, Måns Zelmerlöw, or two-time champion Loreen, Sweden knows what it’s doing. When they enter the arena, a spectacle is expected. And this year, of course, they deliver again.

Sweden is once again a favorite, but this time with something completely different. The trio KAJ, known for their humor and mix of Finnish and Swedish languages, is bringing the song “Bara Bada Bastu” — a cheerful ode to saunas with an epadunk beat. Their performance includes towels, a steamy atmosphere, and tons of energy, which charmed both the audience and jury at Melodifestivalen, earning a record-breaking 4.3 million votes.

Currently, Sweden holds a 25% chance of winning according to the bookies, which would grant them a record eighth Eurovision victory. However, the big question remains whether the jury will embrace this humorous approach or lean towards more serious performers.

Fans are over the moon, but a part of the audience keeps asking: are we witnessing art, or just a well-oiled victory machine? The “Swedish formula” works, but how many more times will the public swallow it before saying: enough?

They’re, predictably, at the very top of the odds. But unlike previous years, there’s a slight sense of fatigue. Public votes might go to a “fresher” player because even the prettiest packaging gets old when you already know what’s inside.

The representative of Sweden at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

 Austria – JJ, “Wasted Love”

Austria stands out this year with JJ’s song “Wasted Love,” an emotional ballad that lifts you up with high countertenor notes and raw sincerity. JJ, known for his unique voice and stage presence, brings a serious dose of emotional depth, which isn’t common in a contest flooded with upbeat rhythms and flashy spectacles.

The performance is visually impressive and meticulously designed — mirrors creating multiple reflections and dramatic lighting amplify the song’s intensity, leaving a hypnotic and introspective vibe. This blend of sound and visuals has already caught the attention of both the audience and juries, who are known to appreciate technical perfection and emotional authenticity.

According to current betting odds, Austria holds a solid 19% chance of winning — a very respectable number for a country not always among the top favorites. JJ has already become a fan favorite on TikTok, where his performances and song clips rack up millions of views, boosting his popularity and refreshing the traditional Eurovision audience.

However, the question remains whether TikTok fame will be enough for ultimate victory. Eurovision is not just a numbers and viral game; it’s also about impressing the jury, who look for a combination of technical skill and emotional power. If the jury truly values that combo, JJ might surprise everyone and take the win.

Still, emotion and virality are just pieces of the puzzle. Austria needs to avoid the trap of “Wasted Love” becoming just another social media hit, instead of a song that conquers hearts and votes in the arena.

The representative of Austria at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

 France – Louane, “Maman”

France is making a grand comeback this year with Louane and her song “Maman” — a gentle, emotional ballad dedicated to her late mother. Unlike many colorful, glamorous, and theatrical performances, Louane chooses the path of subtlety and honest emotion, which is always a double-edged sword at Eurovision.

The performance is minimalistic, almost intimate, with a clear focus on Louane’s vocals and personal story. The stage is stripped of excessive production, allowing her voice and message to shine through. This simplicity has already sparked strong reactions from both audiences and juries, who appreciate authenticity amidst the spectacle.

Louane is no stranger to success — with over three million albums sold in France and numerous hits, she brings experience and recognition. This gives her an edge with older audiences and those who follow Eurovision for music, not just the show.

In the betting odds, France holds about a 10% chance of winning — a solid, but not spectacular percentage. The challenge will be standing out among massive performances and energetic numbers that dominate the night, as Eurovision audiences sometimes prefer bombast and spectacle over quiet emotion.

If the audience and jury are ready to reward a sincere, touching performance without unnecessary glam, “Maman” could be the pleasant surprise of the evening and perhaps even topple some of the pre-contest favorites.

The representative of France at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

 Estonia – Tommy Cash, “Espresso Macchiato”

This year, Estonia decided not to play by the usual Eurovision rules and sent Tommy Cash with the song “Espresso Macchiato” — a mix of eccentricity, humor, and a dash of absurdity. Known for his unconventional performances and unpredictable style, Tommy perfectly fused his message with his stage presence.

“Espresso Macchiato” has already gone viral, thanks to its quirky blend of rap, electronic beats, and theatrical humor that breaks the monotony of typical Eurovision ballads and pop songs. His visual performance is striking, with elements reminiscent of performance art and underground aesthetics, making him a magnet for younger audiences and those seeking something different.

Estonia currently holds about a 7% chance of winning, which is a solid spot for a country not relying on traditional charm or huge productions. Tommy’s authenticity and boldness could earn him extra votes from viewers craving fresh energy.

However, this is a risk — the jury and more traditional parts of the audience might be confused or unimpressed, as “Espresso Macchiato” isn’t everyone’s cup of coffee. If the Eurovision audience embraces humor and eccentricity, Estonia could make a significant breakthrough and perhaps even land in the top 10.

The representative of Estonia at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

 Finland – Erika Vikman, “Ich Komme”

This year, Finland decided to bite a little differently and sent Erika Vikman with the song “Ich Komme” — a track that sparked a wave of reactions and even drew criticism from the Finnish president! When a country’s political elite comments on a Eurovision entry, you know Erika is ready to shock.

“Ich Komme” is provocative, direct, and sexually charged — not exactly the usual Eurovision package, where universality and “clean” entertainment are the norm. Erika is known for her bold and sometimes controversial performances, and this year she’s doubling down on that image.

Finland holds a modest 3% chance of winning according to bookies, clearly showing skepticism towards this type of act. But hey, sometimes the boldest entries are the ones that flip the game and leave everyone speechless.

The question is — will the Eurovision audience and jury be ready to reward such a direct and even controversial performance? Perhaps that very provocation will earn her extra votes from those tired of safe and predictable numbers.

The representative of Finland at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

 Grčka – Klavdia, “Asteromata”

This year, Greece brings Klavdia with the song “Asteromata” — a touching and powerful ballad addressing the fate of refugees and deep connection to one’s homeland. This is not just a song, but a heartfelt story that has already proven to be one of the strongest moments at Greece’s national selection.

Klavdia’s performance is subtle and sincere, focusing on vocals and emotion, without flashy visual effects or showmanship, which can be refreshing in a world saturated with glitz and spectacle. “Asteromata” carries a message of love, loss, and hope — themes with universal appeal that can resonate with audiences across Europe.

Although Greece currently doesn’t rank high in the odds — unsurprising given the competition and song genre — that doesn’t mean their potential should be dismissed. Eurovision is often a place of surprises, and if the audience and jury are in the right mood to appreciate deep, emotional performances with a strong message, “Asteromata” could shine.

Sometimes, a song that speaks to the heart and soul can outshine even the flashiest spectacles, so it wouldn’t be wise to rule out Greece making a bigger splash than predicted.

The representative of Greece at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025.

Conclusion: Six favorites… but maybe a seventh will win

These six countries — Sweden, Austria, France, Estonia, Finland, and Greece — are undoubtedly the main names at Eurovision 2025. The bookies are watching closely, fans are already entrenched in their camps, and analysts are scribbling tables and forecasts. It all seems like we already know who will fight for the throne.

But if Eurovision has taught us anything over the decades, it’s that being a favorite can often become a burden. Many have burst like balloons at the worst possible moment, while the unexpected ones rise from the shadows — winning not just votes, but hearts.

So, even though these countries are the real favorites, we’ll be watching tonight to see whether the rules will hold or if Eurovision will once again prove why it’s one of the biggest musical phenomena in the world — a place where legends are born and historic “moments” are made.

So sit back, grab some popcorn, and brace yourself for surprises — because at Eurovision, nothing is final until the stage lights come on.

Eurovision Song Contest 2025 Final